Kiley & Company for Dan Maffei (10/2-3, likely voters, mid-August in parens):
Dan Maffei (D): 49 (38)
Dale Sweetland (R): 31 (26)
Howie Hawkins (G): 6
(MoE: ±4%)
Maffei takes solid leads among Democrats (74-10), Independents (51-21), and even takes 28% of the Republican vote. I don’t see how Sweetland can claw his way up in this D+3.4 open seat race — especially not with the kind of money that he’s been raising.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.